Strategic Rupture

A lower-probability but high-impact path is a real deterioration in the alliance, involving reduced intelligence coordination, visible diplomatic retaliation, or a push by Israel to diversify away from U.S. arms dependence. This would be treated as a material geopolitical escalation, though not a systemic market crisis.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.