Possible scenario
Sanctions Escalate
20% Chance
The U.S. concludes the postponement violates the spirit of the Barbados Agreement and moves from targeted designations toward oil-license restrictions. The market impact remains contained globally, but crude prices rise on fears that Venezuelan barrels could face renewed limits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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