Possible scenario
Negotiated Electoral Reset
25% Chance
Regional governments and Norway revive a Barbados-style negotiation, pressing Caracas to define court-reform milestones and candidate-access rules. Maduro keeps the late-2027 date but offers enough process concessions to keep limited sanctions relief alive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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