Possible scenario
Delay Becomes Managed Transition
45% Chance
Nicolás Maduro's government uses the court-reform rationale to lock in a late-2027 electoral calendar while limiting opposition participation. The U.S., EU and Organization of American States condemn the delay, but near-term responses remain mostly diplomatic and targeted rather than a full oil-sanctions snapback.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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