Possible scenario
Export Rules Tighten
25% Chance
The arrest strengthens the case inside Washington for tighter controls on complete AI systems, cloud clusters, and third-country resellers. New licensing guidance or end-user certification rules are announced rather than a full embargo.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.7%
- -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.