Possible scenario
Contained Criminal Case
20% Chance
The case proceeds as a conventional criminal export-control prosecution with no immediate evidence that listed suppliers knowingly violated U.S. law. The market response is limited because investors have already priced in a high-enforcement environment for AI chips and servers.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- SMCI+0.6%
- NVDA+0.5%
- DELL+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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