Possible scenario
External Pressure Rises
25% Chance
Washington, Brussels, and several Latin American governments respond to the repeated blockade by threatening or imposing new diplomatic and sanctions measures. The Maduro government calculates that limited economic pain is preferable to allowing Machado to re-enter Venezuela and galvanize street protests.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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