Possible scenario
Gulf Escalation
30% Chance
Iranian or proxy attacks on energy infrastructure broaden, and U.S. or Israeli responses raise the probability of a temporary Hormuz disruption. This is less likely than managed stress, but recent targeting of U.S. oil shipments and Saudi infrastructure makes escalation a realistic risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.7%
- Consumer Services -3.2%
- Industrials -2.0%
- Finance -1.6%
Tickers
- DAL-5.4%
- XOM+4.9%
- CVX+4.5%
- FRO+2.5%
- UAL-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.