Possible scenario
De-Escalation Relief
20% Chance
Diplomatic backchannels through Oman, Qatar, and European governments produce a pause in attacks on tankers and Gulf infrastructure. Oil falls quickly because some of the $117 Brent price reflects a geopolitical risk premium rather than lost barrels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.2%
- Consumer Services +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.6%
- Industrials +1.1%
Tickers
- DAL+3.8%
- UAL+2.5%
- FRO-2.2%
- XOM-2.1%
- CVX-2.1%
- VLO+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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