Possible scenario
Contained Oil Stress
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Gulf shipping remains risky but not fully blocked. U.S. and allied naval escorts, higher insurance costs, and tanker rerouting keep Brent elevated while preventing a repeat of April's full traffic halt.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- DAL-2.5%
- XOM+2.1%
- CVX+2.0%
- FRO+1.5%
- UAL-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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