Possible scenario
Prolonged brinkmanship
20% Chance
Trump maintains public strike threats and military readiness but does not immediately authorize new bombing. The White House uses pressure tactics through the midterm campaign, while Iran avoids actions that would force a large U.S. response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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