Possible scenario
Limited U.S. strikes
45% Chance
Trump authorizes a short, defined strike package against Iranian missile, drone, or nuclear-linked facilities before the midterms. Washington frames the action as a way to restore deterrence and force Tehran back toward a ceasefire, while trying to avoid a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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