Possible scenario
Backchannel ceasefire
25% Chance
Trump keeps strike threats in place but accepts a diplomatic off-ramp brokered by Qatar, Oman, or European intermediaries. The White House claims deterrence worked, while Tehran accepts a temporary halt to direct fire to avoid further U.S. strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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