Possible scenario
OpenCode Stays Isolated
30% Chance
AI labs may maintain refusals if they judge the requested defensive work inseparable from exploit discovery or code-replication risk. OpenCode then relies on conventional incident-response firms and manual patching, reinforcing the view that frontier AI systems remain unavailable for some urgent cyber-defense cases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Business Services +1.2%
Tickers
- CRWD+2.7%
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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