Possible scenario
Labor Squeeze Persists
40% Chance
ICE maintains elevated arrest activity, and undocumented and mixed-status crews continue avoiding job sites. Homebuilders face slower cycle times, higher subcontractor bids, and margin pressure, especially in Sun Belt markets with large immigrant construction workforces.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- DHI-3.8%
- LEN.B-3.6%
- -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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