Possible scenario
Safety Crackdown Deepens
15% Chance
The September output drop proves partly linked to stricter safety inspections following the deadly 2026 coal mine explosion. Beijing prioritizes mine safety over maximum output, creating a tighter winter coal balance and a higher risk of local power constraints.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Energy +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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