Possible scenario
Managed Supply Recovery
45% Chance
Beijing treats the September decline as a manageable pre-winter supply issue rather than a systemic shortage. The National Development and Reform Commission and provincial governments push mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia to stabilize output while using imports and inventories to protect winter heating demand.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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