Possible scenario
Temporary Embassy Relocation
45% Chance
Western governments move diplomats out of Kyiv as a precaution but avoid a full rupture of operations in Ukraine. This is the most likely path because embassies have relocated before while maintaining political support for Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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