Possible scenario
Political Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
The address fails to neutralize anger over both the riots and Macron’s earlier concert appearance. Opposition parties use the unrest to question the government’s authority, creating a new parliamentary crisis even if the street violence begins to ease.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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