Possible scenario
Hard Security Response
30% Chance
The government leans into law-and-order measures, expanding curfews, banning large gatherings in flashpoint areas, and accelerating prosecutions. This reassures some voters and businesses but risks further confrontation with civil-liberties groups and left-wing parties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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