Possible scenario
Unrest Contained
40% Chance
The most likely path is that President Emmanuel Macron's government uses a heavy police presence and targeted talks with unions to keep the unrest from becoming a sustained national shutdown. The 2027 budget cuts remain broadly intact, with limited administrative concessions and a focus on restoring order before the next parliamentary vote.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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