Possible scenario
Parliamentary Crisis
22% Chance
The budget confrontation moves from the streets into parliament after the government tries to bypass a hostile Assembly. France avoids an immediate constitutional breakdown, but the risk of another government collapse rises materially after the December 2024 precedent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.4%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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