Possible scenario
Budget Compromise
25% Chance
The government softens the €43 billion package to reduce social pressure while trying to preserve the headline deficit path. This outcome is plausible because France's recent history shows that prolonged street violence often forces partial retreats even when presidents insist reforms are final.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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