Possible scenario
Trump Economic Reset
20% Chance
The White House treats the collapse in white non-college approval as a direct threat and pivots to pocketbook measures before Election Day. Trump emphasizes prices, wages, manufacturing jobs, tax relief, and targeted trade actions to rebuild support among his 2024 base.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.