Possible scenario
Democratic Midterm Wave
42% Chance
Trump's erosion among white non-college voters proves electorally meaningful, weakening the GOP's core turnout model before the 2026 midterms. Democrats capitalize on economic dissatisfaction and Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia face sharper late-cycle pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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