Possible scenario
Operational Suspension Continues
20% Chance
Even without Brazilian evidence of a threat, allied governments may keep consular services offline until their own security agencies complete reviews. This would create a tangible but narrow hit to travel, visa processing and business mobility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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