Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction Persists
25% Chance
Brazil uses the Federal Police conclusion to demand a detailed explanation from Washington and allied capitals. The dispute remains diplomatic rather than economic, but the public challenge raises short-term uncertainty around visas, travel and bilateral coordination.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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