Possible scenario
Rates Test Valuations
18% Chance
The AI rally becomes more sensitive to interest-rate expectations after the S&P 500's record close. Because Nvidia and AMD now sit at elevated multiples, even modest moves in Treasury yields can drive short-term factor rotation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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