Possible scenario
OTAs Defend Margins
30% Chance
Booking Holdings and Expedia use their scale, supply relationships, loyalty programs, and ad budgets to blunt Instinct's entry. They introduce AI booking interfaces and selective commission discounts without surrendering the core OTA model.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- EXPE+0.5%
- ABNB-0.2%
- META+0.2%
- BKNG-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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