Possible scenario
Direct U.S.-Iran Escalation
28% Chance
The penetration of U.S. air defenses creates political pressure for a visible response against Iranian military assets. Tehran answers with missile, drone, or naval harassment, creating the highest near-term risk of a broader conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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