Possible scenario
State-Federal Standoff
27% Chance
Democratic-led states and some Republican election officials refuse federal demands they view as unlawful. DOJ threatens prosecutions or funding penalties, creating a visible but still legally bounded clash over who controls midterm procedures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.