Possible scenario
Operational Disruption
23% Chance
The warning by security officials is followed by state-level reports of attempted access to election systems, subpoenas or last-minute procedural changes. The most likely consequence is localized confusion and litigation rather than a nationwide inability to conduct the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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