Possible scenario
Courts Contain Pressure
38% Chance
Federal courts and state election chiefs move quickly to cabin any Trump administration actions that could affect midterm administration. Prior rulings against Trump mail-ballot requirements and voter-roll use make injunctions and document-preservation orders the most likely near-term response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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