Possible scenario
US Response Hardens
20% Chance
The strike undercuts the ceasefire claim and pushes Washington toward a tougher posture, including accelerated weapons deliveries or renewed tariff and sanctions threats against Russia-linked trade. This would be a material but still contained geopolitical policy shift rather than a crisis-level shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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