Possible scenario
Diplomacy Remains Alive
25% Chance
Washington keeps pushing the ceasefire framework despite the Kharkiv strike, framing the attack as either outside the proposed energy truce or evidence that verification is needed. Kyiv remains skeptical but does not walk away from talks if US weapons deliveries continue.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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