Possible scenario
Ceasefire Claim Collapses
45% Chance
Russia continues missile and drone strikes on Kharkiv and Ukraine's power infrastructure, and Moscow avoids confirming Trump's claimed energy ceasefire. This is the most likely path because the latest strike follows earlier attacks on six energy facilities and suggests no enforceable pause is in place.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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