Possible scenario
TPLF Insurgency
30% Chance
The TPLF avoids decisive defeat by shifting from city defense to guerrilla operations in rural and mountainous areas of Tigray. This path is realistic because the group has historically relied on dispersed networks, local knowledge, and difficult terrain when facing stronger conventional forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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