Possible scenario
Federal Consolidation
35% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force holds Mekelle and reinstates federal authority through a military-backed interim administration. This is the most likely near-term outcome because the TPLF has already abandoned the city and Addis Ababa can use control of Mekelle airport and roads to shape the next phase.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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