Possible scenario
Western Resupply Surge
27% Chance
The scale of the Russian barrage increases pressure on Washington, Berlin, and other NATO governments to accelerate air-defense deliveries. The most likely response is an emergency package focused on Patriot interceptors, NASAMS missiles, IRIS-T rounds, radar parts, and counter-drone equipment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+2.2%
- LMT+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.