Possible scenario
Escalation Near NATO
20% Chance
A larger Russian campaign increases the odds of spillover near NATO territory, especially around Poland, Romania, and the Black Sea. Even without a deliberate attack on NATO, airspace violations or threats to shipping would raise near-term risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+1.5%
- LMT+1.2%
- XOM+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.