Possible scenario
Air Defense Gap
38% Chance
Russia continues to exploit Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors by pairing large drone swarms with modified Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Kyiv prioritizes protection of government sites, power nodes, and a few major cities while accepting higher damage elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+1.3%
- LMT+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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