Possible scenario
Redemptions Deepen
20% Chance
A more bearish outcome is that the $257.7 million outflow marks the start of a larger short-term de-risking episode. This could happen if Bitcoin breaks lower, leveraged crypto positions unwind, or ETF investors respond to rising realized volatility.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- MARA-5.1%
- RIOT-4.7%
- -4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.