Possible scenario
Gulf Security Worsens
15% Chance
The LNG outage becomes entangled with Gulf security risk following earlier Iranian strikes. Insurance costs, routing decisions and buyer caution raise the risk premium on Qatari LNG even if physical capacity is not further reduced.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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