Possible scenario
EIA Confirms Draw
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the official EIA report broadly confirms the API signal, reinforcing a near-term tightening narrative in US crude inventories. With OPEC+ holding quotas steady and SPR exchanges only partially offsetting supply stress, oil prices retain a modest upside bias.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- OXY+1.1%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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