Possible scenario
Serious Foreign Attack
16% Chance
A successful attack abroad causes multiple casualties among Israelis, Jewish community members or Israeli-linked visitors. Governments respond with arrests, travel warnings and visible protection of Jewish and Israeli sites, while markets price a material but still contained geopolitical risk shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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