Possible scenario
Security Alert Holds
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Israeli and allied security warnings deter or disrupt planned attacks around the anniversary. Heightened police deployments near embassies, synagogues, Jewish schools and Israeli tourist sites keep incidents limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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