Possible scenario
Limited Overseas Incidents
28% Chance
A limited number of attacks or attempted attacks occur against Israeli citizens, Jewish institutions or Israeli-linked venues abroad. Casualties, if any, are limited, and governments frame the events as terrorism or hate-crime cases rather than a state-level escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.