Possible scenario
Johnson Becomes Focus
20% Chance
Johnson's categorical denial makes him the central figure in the next phase of the controversy. Opposition parties and some Conservatives press for testimony, creating personal legal and reputational risk for the former prime minister but limited direct economic consequences.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.