Possible scenario
Inquiry Pressure Builds
35% Chance
The most likely path is that Johnson's denial does not end the issue and Parliament demands more disclosure from the Prime Minister, the Cabinet Office, and intelligence officials. The political focus shifts from whether interference occurred to who knew what and why no formal Brexit-specific assessment was completed earlier.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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