Possible scenario
Southern Front Breakthrough
27% Chance
The underground counteroffensive proves more disruptive than Russian commanders expected, allowing Ukraine to bypass fixed defenses and threaten key logistics nodes. This would be the first major operational shift in the war since the front froze under drone surveillance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.4%
- Technology +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- LMT+1.6%
- RTX+0.7%
- NOC+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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